Important Information

You are visiting the international Vantage Markets website, distinct from the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP
( www.vantagemarkets.co.uk ) which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA").

This website is managed by Vantage Markets' international entities, and it's important to emphasise that they are not subject to regulation by the FCA in the UK. Therefore, you must understand that you will not have the FCA’s protection when investing through this website – for example:

  • You will not be guaranteed Negative Balance Protection
  • You will not be protected by FCA’s leverage restrictions
  • You will not have the right to settle disputes via the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS)
  • You will not be protected by Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS)
  • Any monies deposited will not be afforded the protection required under the FCA Client Assets Sourcebook. The level of protection for your funds will be determined by the regulations of the relevant local regulator.

If you would like to proceed and visit this website, you acknowledge and confirm the following:

  • 1.The website is owned by Vantage Markets' international entities and not by Vantage Global Prime LLP, which is regulated by the FCA.
  • 2.Vantage Global Limited, or any of the Vantage Markets international entities, are neither based in the UK nor licensed by the FCA.
  • 3.You are accessing the website at your own initiative and have not been solicited by Vantage Global Limited in any way.
  • 4.Investing through this website does not grant you the protections provided by the FCA.
  • 5.Should you choose to invest through this website or with any of the international Vantage Markets entities, you will be subject to the rules and regulations of the relevant international regulatory authorities, not the FCA.

Vantage wants to make it clear that we are duly licensed and authorised to offer the services and financial derivative products listed on our website. Individuals accessing this website and registering a trading account do so entirely of their own volition and without prior solicitation.

By confirming your decision to proceed with entering the website, you hereby affirm that this decision was solely initiated by you, and no solicitation has been made by any Vantage entity.

I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom

By providing your email and proceeding to create an account on this website, you acknowledge that you will be opening an account with Vantage Global Limited, regulated by the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC), and not the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

    Please tick all to proceed

  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
  • Please tick the checkbox to proceed
Proceed Please direct me to website operated by Vantage Global Prime LLP, regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom.

×

Celebrating 15 Years of Excellence

Find Out More >
Celebrating 15 Years of Excellence
View More
SEARCH
  • All
    Trading
    Platforms
    Academy
    Analysis
    Promotions
    About
  • Search
Keywords
  • Forex Trading
  • Vantage Rewards
  • Spreads
  • facebook
  • instagram
  • twitter
  • linkedin
  • youtube
  • tiktok
  • spotify

Week Ahead: US Election, Fed, BoE and RBA Meetings

Vantage Updated Updated Sun, 2024 November 3 11:15

The US election is finally upon us and to say it is the biggest risk event of the year, at a minimum, is a probably mild understatement. In fact all in, it’s an incredibly busy week, no doubt historic in many ways and with much volatiltiy, so risk management for all traders will be hugely important. And yet, even though probably around 70% of states will have been called by the time the European session opens on Wednesday (going off the previous 2020 election), it is the crucial seven swing states that hold the keys to who is in power for the next four years.

Markets have already placed their bets on a virtual red victory and the Republicans are expected to win a majority in the Senate. But House elections remain uncertain while the race in polls is very close for the Oval Office. Results from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will get the most focus, with Harris expected to have to win all three, whereas Trump only needs one, assuming he takes Georgia and North Carolina. Results from the three rust belt states are likely to be known only by late Wednesday, or even after that.

Stock markets, the dollar and cryptocurrencies have all performed well recently. Trump 2.0 means tax cuts and deregulation are positive developments for Wall Street, but tariffs and higher borrowing costs are not. A delayed vote and possible Harris win see these recent moves reversed. A Democrat victory implies continuity and a highly probable split Congress. That ultimately puts more pressure on the Fed to deliver rate cuts to keep the economy ticking along.

Thursday will see the FOMC do that with a quarter point cut priced in. Forward-looking guidance, from Fed policymakers, as well as from the Bank of England who meet hours before, will be all-important for markets. GBP has been upset by recent jitters caused by the government’s budget. The dollar has been consolidating recently just below recent cycle highs.

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Tuesday, 5 November 2024

RBA Meeting: Consensus expects rates will be left unchanged at 4.35%. Q3 trimmed mean inflation was broadly in line with the bank’s forecast. The risks of more policy tightening seem to have eased. Updated projections will be in focus.  

US Election: Opinion polls remain neck and neck, but betting markets have swung sharply to a Trump victory. Treasury yields, the dollar and stocks have all risen in line with the latter. These trends will likely continue with a confirmed Trump win but could retrace dramatically on a blue triumph.

US ISM Services: Expectations are for non-manufacturing ISM to slip to 53.5 from 54.9 in September, which was a one and a half year high. Services activity remains firmly in expansionary territory.

Thursday, 7 November 2024

Bank of England Meeting: Markets predict an 80% chance that the MPC will cut rates by 25bps to 4.75%. The latest Monetary Policy Report and the impact of the UK Budget will be in focus. The MPC is likely to raise inflation forecasts, which means less policy easing than previously forecast.  

FOMC Meeting: The Fed is nailed on to cut rates by 25bps. Recent activity data continues to remain solid, though price pressures are benign. Guidance is likely to highlight that a moderate easing cycle is expected as rates are still restrictive.

Friday, 8 November 2024

Canada Jobs: Analysts forecast 39,000 jobs to be added and the unemployment rate to remain at 6.5%. The recent BoC statement noted that population growth has continued to expand the labour force with hiring relatively modest.