Weekly Outlook | Dollar weak, crypto still strong

Important events this week:

The general market sentiment in equities still look positive, which might have to do with the year- end rally in general. Furthermore, the positive momentum in the Greenback is fading, which helps stock markets moving to the upside. A weaker Dollar oftentimes helps equity markets to shine. Precious metals keep rather subdued, as geopolitical tensions fade, yet might also be impacted again soon due to the weaker Greenback. This week’s news events might offer fresh market momentum, in particular after the Thanksgiving holiday last week.

– CH consumer price index- The consumer price index from Switzerland might not be one of the leading indicators, as the data mostly came out in line with market expectations. Also, numbers had been more or less stable in the past months and are not expected to vary by far. However, a potential higher reading might impact markets and could cause the CHF to strengthen.

We now take a look at the USDCHF currency pair. Seasonal figures show a 70% bearish probability towards the end of the year. Based on the monthly chart above, the market might be ready to weaken. The market kept falling off the strong resistance zone. If the area is not be broken to the upside the recent falling trend, which is also confirmed with the 50- moving average in blue color, the slide might continue. Prices could then be ready to move towards the 0.8400 price zone. The data will be announced on Tuesday, December 03 at 08:30 CET.

– CA- Labor market data – The labor data from Canada is always interesting, in particular when it falls on the same Friday with the NFP data from the US. The strong connection between the oil market and the Canadian Dollar might not be visible for now despite Canada being a big exporting country. Oil prices keep falling currently, whereas the “Loonie” rather gears up some momentum.

The USDCAD currency pair shows a strong retracement off the weekly chart above. This might indicate that the price of the Canadian is gearing up momentum, causing this pair to proceed lower. A potential target might be the area at 1.3700 as the long- term chart suggests. Only a break above the highs near the 1.4100 area might offer further upside potential again. The data will be published on Friday December 06 at 14:30 CET.

– US (Nonfarm Payrolls) labor market report – last month NFP data came out negative, likely impacted by natural disasters. There has not been a big impact in markets as this was expected beforehand. We might see some positive momentum this month. The USD could hence gear up steam. On the flipside the Greenback remains under pressure against most other currencies and hence could also continue the sliding momentum.

In general, the USDJPY currency pair offers the most volatility in the trading hours after the news event. In this case the daily chart above shows potential into either direction. Yet, the price is currently trading below the 50- moving average, which also acts as a strong horizontal support zone. A bearish continuation might cause prices to fall further. The figure will be released on Friday December 06 at 14:30 CET.